Fred vs. Jason on YouTube’s value

Now things are starting to get interesting — it looks like we’ve got ourselves a bet on when and how YouTube gets TV networks to play ball. Check the comments on Jason Calacanis’s blog, where he takes issue with Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures over YouTube’s ability to “monetize” their traffic (from the Latin for “turn into stock options”). Fred says that he expects a network to license their content for distribution on YouTube “and take a guaranteed CPM or a rev share (maybe both).” And here’s the kicker:

I’ll bet you a sushi dinner of the winners choice in NY or LA that it happens in the next 12 months.

Game on, as we say up north in the world of road-hockey. For what it’s worth, I think Jason makes some good points (although I would deny that if called to testify in court), since they are pretty much the same points I made in my comment on Fred’s post. Namely: the CPM Fred uses is likely too high, and so is the proportion of YouTube content that is monetizeable — although I think the one of the cat in the Kleenex box or whatever is hilarious too, don’t get me wrong, and I’m a huge lonelygirl15 fan too, as anyone who reads this blog (yes, I mean you, mom) knows by now.

So who’s right — Jason or Fred? A sushi dinner is riding on the outcome of this historic match-up. Film at 11.

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