Merry Christmas from the Ingrams for 2001

Hey, thanks for dropping by — whoever you are. And all the best of the season to you and yours, from us and ours. “Us” is Becky and Mathew and Caitlin and Meaghan and Zoe Ingram. No longer the Calgary-based Ingrams, we have made the big trek back to the centre of the known universe in Toronto, where we have a lovely little house near the Rouge River, down by the lake — with a lovely view of the nuclear generating station.So since we’re way too disorganized to get actual paper Christmas cards out in time, this is an electronic Season’s greeting from our family to yours.

As we write this, we’ve just had a little bit of wintery weather — a rare event in Toronto this season, which has seen more double digit days than any other December in recent memory. It just doesn’t seem right to be putting up Christmas lights in a T-shirt. But the snow is already going. Maybe Santa will have to bring the ATV instead of the sleigh.

In case you haven’t seen them for awhile, here’s a review of where the kids are — and no, this won’t be one of those letters that talks about how Caitlin just got accepted into Harvard at the age of 12, or how Meaghan won a Rhodes scholarship, or Zoe danced Swan Lake in her Christmas pageant… although I should mention that Zoe recently became a magician’s assistant for a day at a Christmas party, out in the country at a tree farm, where we also went out into the field and cut down our magnificent Christmas tree. Caitlin spends a little too much time on MSN Messenger with her friends for our liking, but other than that is turning into quite the young lady (except for sometimes that is).

Meaghan is also growing up fairly quickly, but while she likes to wear a dress now and then, she also loves to do 8-year-old things like play with snakes like the ones they had at our company Christmas party, where the girls got to ride on a toy train and meet Santa. Zoe, meanwhile, is a bossy 3.5-year-old (no surprise there), and manages to get everyone in the house to do what she wants, even if they would rather not. She has made lots of friends at play school, and even won the award for Most Improved Play-doh Animal, a coveted… oops. Sorry about that.

There’s a few more pictures here if you want to have a look at them (go on — you know you want to). Or you can send an e-mail to Mathew at [email protected] or one to Becky at [email protected] or to Caitlin at [email protected] — you get the picture. Zoe might take a little while to respond, but don’t let that stop you.

Napster’s dead, but the file-sharing war continues

Call it the file-sharing war part two: the post-Napster battle. That’s what the major record companies, movie studios and music publishers are now engaged in, with a handful of file-sharing networks that sprang up following the death of Napster. The popular service, which at one time had 30 million users, was effectively killed by a series of multibillion-dollar lawsuits, which eventually resulted in a court order that Napster remove all copyrighted music from its network of servers. Getting rid of the new batch of file-sharing services may not be quite that simple, however.

The new services are known by several different names, including MorpheusKazaa and Grokster. They are all based on software from an Amsterdam-based company called FastTrack, which allows users to set up a virtual public network among themselves through which they can trade any type of digital content — music, videos, full-length movies, software, and so on. One key difference is that Kazaa or Morpheus users don’t share files by accessing a central group of servers, as Napster users did. That’s part of what made the company vulnerable, because it was held liable for the file-swapping.

Kazaa and Morpheus — and other file-sharing services such as Limewire and BearShare, which are based on the open-source software known as Gnutella — are “distributed” networks, meaning users download or upload files directly from another user’s computer. In the case of Gnutella, the software that runs the networks is freely available, which makes it difficult to find a company to pursue in court. FastTrack (which runs Kazaa) charges MusicCity (which runs Morpheus) a licensing fee for its software, but even if it was shut down, the software is not that hard to reproduce.

With these kinds of distributed networks, copyright holders are effectively forced to go after individual file-sharers — and in October alone, estimates are that well over half a million users swapped more than 2 billion digital files. File swappers, and some legal experts, argue that under copyright law consumers who pay for music have the right to make copies for other uses, such as playing them from their computer, in a car stereo and so on. Shutting down the file-swapping networks would prevent them from doing so — or they could switch to other methods, including using the latest version of Microsoft’s Instant Messenger or the file-sharing tools included in older chat-oriented software such as Internet Relay Chat.

Nevertheless, last month the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) filed a suit against MusicCity and FastTrack, and was joined in the action by the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA), which is concerned that high-speed Internet access and new compression schemes make it even easier to swap entire full-length Hollywood movies as well as music. Earlier this week, the National Music Publishers Association, which represents about 800 music-publishing companies and licenses music through its Harry Fox subsidiary, also launched a suit. The plaintiffs are legendary songwriters Jerry Leiber and Mike Stoller, who wrote Jailhouse Rock.

While they have been pursuing Napster and its offspring in court, the major record labels have promised that two new on-line music services will take the place of file swapping. MusicNet is a consortium of EMI Music, Warner Music Group and BMG Music that plans to use RealNetworks technology, while Pressplay is a partnership between Sony Music and Vivendi, and has a technology deal with Yahoo. To complicate things, Napster is supposed to be part of MusicNet, while EMI Music has licensed its artist catalogue both to Pressplay and to MusicNet. Both services are expected to launch next year, although their launch dates have already been delayed several times.

Both Pressplay and MusicNet will likely involve restrictions that file-sharers are not likely to take kindly to, however. They are expected to be “tiered,” which means one monthly fee — $9.95, for example — will only allow you to access certain songs, or will only allow you to stream the music rather than downloading it onto your hard drive. MusicNet also has plans to provide music files which expire at the end of the month. Even users who pay the full price may be restricted to copying the file to one device only, while users who are looking for music from both EMI and Sony or Warner and Vivendi, meanwhile, will have to pay two monthly fees.

With those kinds of restrictions, it won’t be a surprise if file-swappers continue to find alternatives such as Morpheus and Kazaa, whatever the outcome of the case happens to be.

RIM has bad news for growth fans – there isn’t any

Amid the bad news about writedowns and so on in Research In Motion’s second-quarter report, the handheld device maker’s revenue gains stood out as a bright spot — sales climbed by 88 per cent from the same quarter the previous year. Unfortunately, there are just a couple of caveats: One is that the stock market has been pricing in revenue gains of far more than that, and the other is that RIM is now expecting its sales will fall slightly in the third quarter and show little or no growth in the fourth. That’s not the kind of thing investors in a stock selling for 70 times earnings want to hear.

One of the reasons why RIM’s revenues won’t be growing at the speed they were expected to previously is that some of the company’s partners are in serious financial difficulty, including would-be wireless data provider Motient Corp. The U.S. company, which had a deal to offer RIM’s BlackBerry handhelds, said recently that it would not be making a major interest payment on some of its debt and that it is cutting jobs and will have to restructure its finances. Last year, RIM said that it expected to add 50,000 BlackBerry subscribers as a result of an expanded agreement with Motient.

RIM has now taken a $23-million writedown on inventory and receivables as a result of Motient’s “weakened financial condition.” And that is only the latest black spot on RIM’s planned rollout in the United States. Only two months ago, both Motient and Aether Systems — another startup wireless provider — as well as telecom partner Cingular Wireless (a venture of BellSouth and SBC Communications) said they were not adding subscribers as quickly as expected. Cingular added 60-per-cent fewer subscribers than analysts had expected, raising obvious concerns about future sales. Aether has also cut over 40 per cent of its staff and lost $103-million in the most recent quarter.

Research In Motion chairman and co-chief executive officer Jim Balsillie said on Wednesday the company isn’t that concerned about problems with some of its U.S. partners because “we believe that the migration to next-generation networks will limit our exposure to their difficulties.” But the rollout of those next-generation networks — such as the GPRS (global packet radio system) services some North American and European carriers are starting to offer — is not coming as quickly as expected.

That leaves the company in a bind: Its sales of the older-style BlackBerry pagers and handhelds are slowing and profit margins are tightening, but the new markets it needs in order to keep growing have yet to fully develop. RIM said that it has shipped 20,000 of its new handhelds to BT Cellnet,a unit of BT PLC, as part of a deal for 175,000 of the devices — but there was little detail about future shipments. The rollout of GPRS networks by BT and others has been held up by technical and financial hurdles.

Company watchers have been hoping for news of other launches similar to BT’s, since this is where the company expects much of its growth will come from, but so far there has been little. VoiceStream (a unit of Deutsche Telekom) has said that it plans to start offering BlackBerrys in “early 2002,” but apart from that all RIM has are “memorandums of understanding” with Internet and telecom providers in France, Italy and the Netherlands. Many are waiting until they see whether next-generation services will sell, or whether consumers are willing to pay enough for them.

In its release, RIM said sales for the second quarter were $80-million (far below many estimates), sales for the third quarter will be as low as $70-million to $75-million, and the fourth quarter will be about the same — meaning sales for the year could be 15 to 20 per cent below estimates. The company said it would have an operating loss of 6 to 9 cents for the third quarter and a loss of 8 to 12 cents for the fourth — which would mean a loss for the year of anywhere from 4 to 11 cents. That compares with earlier profit estimates for the year of 22 to 34 cents a share.

And RIM is still far from bargain priced. Even before the company revised its earnings expectations, the stock was trading for almost 70 times this year’s average earnings estimates and 30 times next year’s earnings projections. The company is now saying that its earnings for next year may be between zero and 10 cents a share — compared with earlier estimates of between 48 and 76 cents. That means despite its recent fall, and the fact that it is now trading close to its 52-week low of $13.70, the stock is still trading at more than 150 times next year’s estimated earnings. That may have looked reasonable a couple of years ago, but not any more. Mathew Ingram writes analysis and commentary for globeandmail.com

PayPal looks like a great IPO idea – for 1998

Major North American stock markets are still shaky after the attacks on New York and Washington, the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq market index are near their lows and investors seem generally tense and nervous. On top of all that, the technology sector is firmly in the grips of a bear market. Sounds like the perfect time to launch an IPO, doesn’t it? That appears to be exactly what the folks at PayPal, the on-line payment service, were thinking: They filed a prospectus for an initial public offering on Friday.

To say the least, this seems like a bizarre – if not doomed – choice of timing. Apart from the malaise infecting technology stocks, the IPO market is virtually dead. It was on life support even before the terrorist attacks in the United States, and the events of Sept. 11 more or less pulled the plug completely: September was the first month since 1975 that saw no U.S. IPOs launched at all. Not just a few – none.

Not only that, there’s a recent cautionary example of just how wrong such an IPO can go: A network services company called Loudcloud – backed by former Netscape founder Marc Andreessen, among others – went public in March, just as the Nasdaq cratered. It raised $150-million (U.S.) but is still struggling, burning through $35-million per quarter, and the company recently laid off an undisclosed number of staff. From $7 after the issue, the stock is at $1.20, having lost over 82 per cent of its value.

But that hasn’t stopped PayPal from going ahead with its issue – which raises the question: Why the hell not? Why would any company decide to wade into the public markets now? The most likely answer is that it can’t afford to wait. Like many startups, PayPal has financed itself over the past two years with funding from venture capital groups, including Sequoia Capital, Clearstone Partners and Nokia Ventures, an arm of the Finnish cell-phone giant. But even venture capitalists have gotten stingy.

Its IPO filing shows that PayPal burned through about $30-million in the most recent quarter – although the company claims that its burn rate is decreasing. Rather than having any equity, it currently has a shareholders’ deficit of more than $164-million, as a result of losing over $230-million since its inception two and a half years ago. After the issue, which is expected to raise about $80-million, the company says it will have shareholders’ equity of $114-million and cash or cash equivalents of $123-million.

And what about the company’s business? PayPal is an on-line payments company, handling e-commerce transactions between individuals or companies. In many ways, it acts as a kind of virtual Western Union, allowing buyers and sellers on eBay or Yahoo’s auction Web site to exchange funds by cheque or credit card. It also functions as a bank, in the sense that users can withdraw funds from their PayPal accounts, are paid interest on any balance they have, and can access their account from automated teller machines.

One of the problems with that model, obviously, is that by functioning as a near-bank, PayPal is vulnerable to competition from actual banks – including Citigroup in particular, which runs an on-line payment service called c2it that has co-marketing arrangements with AOL Time Warner and Microsoft. Not surprisingly, Western Union also has its own services called BidPay (for auctions) and MoneyZap. But the real issue for PayPal is that eBay has its own on-line payment service known as BillPoint.

This is a serious problem because the majority of PayPal’s business comes from auctions – 70 per cent or so in the most recent quarter – and much of that comes from eBay (Yahoo, which also runs an auction site, has its own payment service called PayDirect). EBay promotes its own service prominently on all auction sites as the preferred method of payment. In fact, PayPal recently sent a letter to eBay users telling them the auction site was changing their payment preferences to BillPoint (also called eBay Online Payments) without their knowledge, a charge that eBay has denied.

On the plus side, the company says it has 10 million registered users, and handles an average of 165,000 transactions a day worth about $8-million, for a total of $747-million worth of transactions in the second quarter. But there’s no question the company faces a stiff headwind, particularly in the current economic environment – and the fact that it is going ahead with an IPO anyway has to be seen as a sign of desperation.

New York has to rebuild, and that will cost billions

After virtually any disaster, natural or man-made, there must be rebuilding, and the attacks on New York and Washington are no exception. That’s not to say the World Trade Center has to be rebuilt, but the brokerage firms and banks and insurance companies that inhabited it have to somehow get back to work. In addition to the horrific human loss that has been suffered, those businesses have to replace the nuts and bolts of their operations, and that means buying everything from computers to phone networks.

According to Tower Group, a New York-based consulting firm that specializes in studying technology in the financial services industry, at least $3.2-billion (U.S.) will have to be spent by securities firms alone to replace the systems they lost when the World Trade Center towers collapsed. The firm expects $1.7-billion to be spent on hardware (including trading stations, sales stations, workstations, PCs, servers, printers, storage devices, cabling, hubs, routers and switches) and another $1.5-billion on consulting services and software to install and connect all the new hardware.

According to the New York Times, one securities firm ordered 200 PCs from Dell Computer within hours of the planes hitting the World Trade Center – and that was just the first in a rush of replacement orders. Dell said it had to step up production at its plant in Austin, Texas and has been more or less operating its plants at peak capacity around the clock. The company said it had sold more than 24,000 servers, laptops and desktop computers as of Monday and had turned three 18-wheelers into mobile support facilities. One law firm sent its own truck to Austin to pick up 400 computers.

Tower Group said in its report that it believes 30,000 securities positions (including trading, sales, research and operations) were destroyed in the two World Trade Center towers – and that as many as 15,000 to 20,000 positions will need to be replaced in nearby buildings, including the World Financial Center and Bankers Trust buildings. That includes 16,000 trading desks (including multiple workstations with multiple flat-screen displays) worth $52,000 each, 34,000 PC workstations at $5,000, about 8,000 Intel servers and 5,000 UNIX servers at a cost of about $370-million.

And those figures are just for the securities industry. Similar numbers will likely apply to the law firms, insurance companies and others that were located in the towers, although they most likely would not have five flat-screen computer displays on every desk the way a securities dealer would. And that’s just the computer equipment that has to be replaced – then there are the phone and data networks that have been destroyed or seriously damaged, not to mention the impact on the commercial real estate market in New York as a result of the collapse of the two immense office towers.

By some estimates, as much as 15 million square feet of office space has been either obliterated or damaged – equal to about 15 Empire State buildings, or all the office space in downtown Atlanta or Miami – in addition to more than 75,000 phone lines and over 20,000 miles of telephone and data cables. According to one report, tens of millions of dollars in phone switches are buried, and steel girders severely damaged one of the switching facilities for Verizon’s network. “We have a giant job cutting out the pieces that don’t work and reattaching the parts that do,” Hugh O’Kane, CEO of telecom consulting firm Levent Management, told Fortune magazine.

Obviously, some of the firms who have lost entire networks – both phone and data – will take the opportunity to upgrade to faster or more secure (or redundant) systems, rather than just duplicating what they had before. And that might mean a considerable amount of unexpected business for companies such as Cisco SystemsNortel Networks and other networking equipment makers. Focusing on the sales of office equipment after such a terrible event no doubt seems cruel and insensitive, but eventually the world must return to normalcy, and helping companies recover is part of that.

There’s no question that the spending on computers and networking gear will provide tens of billions of dollars that those industries were not expecting to get. But will it be just a short-term blip? Perhaps. On the other hand, it might help PC makers such as Dell and networking equipment companies such as Cisco get through the next couple of quarters, until those industries and the economy itself begin to return to something approaching normal behaviour (assuming that ever happens, of course).

Avoid the urge to sell everything – or buy everything

On the front cover of The Hitch Hiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, the traveller’s manual in Douglas Adams’ popular novel of the same name, was a simple piece of advice: “Don’t Panic.” This also happens to be good advice if you are an investor – and not just now, in the aftermath of the attacks on the United States, but at almost any time. In fact, many investors should probably have heeded that advice in 1999, when the market was deep in the throes of a buying panic. And it is just as timely now, when the impulse may be to sell just about everything you own and head for the hills.

If you were to sell everything, you would certainly have plenty of company: Despite all the talk about investors holding fast – or even buying stocks – to show their resolve in the face of terrorism and so on, the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq stock index both went into free-fall when trading opened on Monday, with the Dow dropping by almost 600 points or more than 6 per cent, and the Nasdaq off by about 6 per cent as well, or over 100 points. After an attempt at a rebound of sorts both indexes started to head south again, hitting lows not seen since the latter part of 1998. Tuesday brought a brief respite, but then the selling intensified again on Wednesday.

So should you join the stampede? Not unless you enjoy throwing good money after bad. The fact is that rash decisions are rarely wise decisions – unless you want to rely on the chance that you might accidentally make the right choice, which probably isn’t the kind of attitude you want to take when dealing with your portfolio. If that is the approach you want to take, then you might as well head down to Las Vegas and put some money on your favourite number, or throw a handful of darts at the stock pages. Throwing all your stocks out the window because of an all-consuming fear of a global meltdown sparked by last week’s events falls into the same category.

Not panicking also covers some of the behaviour that investors might feel compelled to take, apart from selling everything – such as the desire to buy stocks indiscriminately, as a gesture of patriotism or solidarity with the United States, as some financial advisors and columnists were recommending late last week. That may seem like a nice gesture to make, but it isn’t likely to help you or even the economy as a whole.

Holding tight to every stock you own is also not the wisest course, since there are stocks in certain sectors that arguably should be sold – shares in some airlines, for example, whose financial future might be in doubt as a result of a sharp drop in international and business traffic; or shares in certain large insurance companies who might find themselves on the hook for tens of billions of dollars in claims; or some hospitality stocks, on the assumption that travel might suffer.

Conversely, of course, the contrary impulse – to buy some of everything, since this must be an enormous buying opportunity if you were at all bullish before the attacks occurred – would also likely be an over-reaction. As difficult as it may be, investors should do what they (at least theoretically) attempt to do at other times, when there are no disasters and war is not looming large on the horizon, and that is to take a little time and think about what is happening and what it might mean for their portfolio, before coming to any conclusions about which stocks to buy or which to sell.

Warren Buffett, the legendary value investor known as the Sage of Omaha, told the TV show 60 Minutes on the weekend that he wasn’t planning to sell anything, and that depending on how much certain sectors fell on Monday, he might start looking at buying a few stocks. That may be boring and uninspiring, unlike the call to “Buy a stock for America!” that some market watchers have been promoting, but boring is how Mr. Buffett came to be worth $30-billion(U.S.) or so. It doesn’t make for great headlines, of course, but it helps to avoid a lot of the ups and downs of the day-trading crowd.

A survey of past catastrophic events and their effect on the stock market proves the point even better: According to data crunchers such as the folks at Markethistory.com, in virtually every case going back to the turn of the century, a disaster or war event of some kind has caused benchmarks such as the Dow and the S&P 500 index to slide by anywhere from 5 to 12 per cent – but in six months to a year, those indexes were higher than they had been, having made up all the ground they lost and then some. That goes for the bombing of the World Trade Center in 1993, the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, Pearl Harbor and the sinking of the Lusitania in 1915.

In other words, there are plenty of reasons for buying and selling stocks in the wake of the attacks in the United States – but some of them, however well-meaning they might be, are unsound.

Who is Osama bin Laden?

(Note: This was originally published at the Globe and Mail)

By now, everyone who has been following the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon has probably heard the name Osama bin Laden. President George W. Bush has said that he is a prime suspect in the terrorist attacks, just as he was a prime suspect in the bombing of the World Trade Center in 1993 and in dozens of other terrorist attacks on U.S. embassies, ships and other assets. Some viewers may even have seen Mr. bin Laden on television, a wiry man with a long beard, dressed in traditional Muslim robes, speaking into a microphone or walking out of a tent in the mountains surrounded by men carrying semi-automatic rifles. But just who is Osama bin Laden?

As far as anyone can tell, Osama (or Ussamah) bin Mohammed bin Awad bin Laden was born in Saudi Arabia in 1957 to a prominent businessman from Yemen and his fourth wife. Mr. bin Laden has 22 half-brothers who control various branches of the family empire (the Syrian group, the Lebanese group, the Egyptian group, the Jordanian group, and so on) – a conglomerate that does business throughout the Middle East and is worth about $5-billion (U.S.). Mr. bin Laden’s father Mohammed was a close friend of Saudi King Abdul Aziz, and made his early fortune by being granted an exclusive contract to build all the religious structures in the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, and until 1967 in the city of Jerusalem as well. From this Mr. bin Laden expanded into road construction, farming, telecommunications, petrochemicals and a range of other businesses.

According to one account, the bin Laden sons went to the same schools as the various children of King Abdul Aziz – as well as other Middle Eastern luminaries such as King Hussein of Jordan, the Kashoggi brothers (whose father was one of the king’s doctors) and actor Omar Sharif. Like his half-brothers, Osama bin Laden worked for awhile for his father’s company, and reportedly had a reputation as a bit of a party boy who liked to stay out late and drink in Jeddah, the political hub of Saudi Arabia.

Those party days came to an end, however, when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, and a large number of Saudi men went to support their Muslim neighbours. Osama bin Laden used his family’s money and construction equipment to dig tunnels and trenches in the mountains and to create a network of training camps and rebel bases. Like most of the “mujahideen” rebel groups, he was financed and trained in part by the U.S. government, which spent $6-billion or so trying to defeat the Soviets.

After the Soviet troops finally pulled out of Afghanistan, Mr. bin Laden went back to Saudi Arabia and continued building roads and other projects – but he would say later that his commitment to a radical and violent interpretation of Islam, to the idea of a holy war, started in Afghanistan. Even though he and his mujahideen fighters were working with (or for) the U.S. to repel the Soviets, Mr. bin Laden and others saw the U.S. as equally oppressive to Muslim peoples in the Middle East, and as soon as the Russian threat was gone, Mr. bin Laden turned his attention to the U.S. “crusaders,” who he blamed for helping Israel oppress the Muslims in Palestine and for corrupting the royal government of his home country of Saudi Arabia.

Through the 1980s, Mr. bin Laden continued working in construction, on projects that included an 800 kilometre road from Port Sudan to Khartoum in Sudan – a war-torn country controlled by a radical Islamic military regime. The bin Laden group also reportedly built a number of oil pipelines, which are now being used to transport oil from a field in the southern region of the country, a project that is partially owned by Talisman Energy of Calgary. Mr. bin Laden later moved to Sudan, and continued building his business empire, moving into agriculture and even pharmaceutical production.

Sudanese leader Omar el-Bashir has maintained that Mr. bin Laden was an ordinary businessman while he was in Sudan, helping to build roads and schools, but U.S. and international authorities became convinced he was engaged in financing terrorism and training Muslim terrorists. In 1998, in retaliation for attacks on two U.S. embassies, the U.S. destroyed what it said was a chemical weapons factory controlled by Mr. bin Laden – a plant Mr. bin Laden said was a pharmaceutical manufacturing facility.

Although he was known to the U.S. government already, his first real appearance on the international scene was when he granted an interview to British journalist Robert Fisk of The Independent in 1993. At the time, he was building the Port Sudan road, using the same bulldozers he had used to build a network of guerrilla trails in Afghanistan – but already, some of his fellow mujahideen had gone to fight in Bosnia and Mr. bin Laden was suspected of helping to finance that battle between Christian Serbs and Muslim Croats. In 1993, the World Trade Center was bombed, and the world started to become familiar with the name Osama bin Laden.

The following year, the rest of Mr. bin Laden’s family distanced themselves from their half-brother: Bakr Mohammed bin Laden, the leader of the family group, expressed the family’s “regret, denunciation and condemnation of all acts that Osama bin Laden may have committed” (one of Mr. bin Laden’s uncles denounced him again this week in comments to Associated Press, and sent the family’s condolences to the victims in the U.S.). The U.S., meanwhile, was putting pressure on the Sudanese government to distance itself from Mr. bin Laden and his ilk, and finally the country pressured Mr. bin Laden to leave. He decided to return to Afghanistan, where he helped the radical Islamic group known as the Taliban to take control of the country, and in return was offered the protection of the government.

From most reports, Mr. bin Laden has helped to set up a network of training camps and supply depots in the hills of Afghanistan, and moves from camp to camp at random to avoid potential attacks. He has a heavily fortified family compound in Kandahar, but rarely spends much time there – preferring to stay in a network of caves and tents in the hills, guarded by a group of devoted followers including his 16-year-old son Mohammed. He reportedly has satellite phones in the caves, which he uses to keep in touch with various radical Muslim groups, as well as other electronic equipment including fax machines and computers that are powered by electric generators. Mr. bin Laden’s group is known in Arabic as al-Qaeda, or “the base.”

The United States has tried to pressure the Taliban to hand over Mr. bin Laden, but they have refused, denying that he is involved with any terrorism. Several sources have reported that two years ago, his daughter (he has 20 children from four marriages) married Mullah Mohammed Omar, the leader of the Taliban – and at the same time, Mr. bin Laden married the daughter of a highly-ranked leader in the Taliban government, the two marriages further cementing his ties with the ruling party in Afghanistan. Some foreign security experts believe that such ties make it unlikely that the Taliban will hand over Mr. bin Laden, no matter how much the U.S. threatens.

In a series of interviews he has given, including one with ABC News reporter John Miller in 1998, as well as in public statements – such as the death sentence or “fatwah” he issued in 1998 against the U.S. – Osama bin Laden has made it clear that he believes that virtually any action taken against any American, civilian or military, is justified by his holy war. He said “We do not have to differentiate between military or civilian. As far as we are concerned, they are all targets, and this is what the fatwah says . . . . The fatwah is general (comprehensive) and it includes all those who participate in, or help the Jewish occupiers in killing Muslims.”

In the 1998 fatwah, Mr. bin Laden says that: “We – with God’s help – call on every Muslim who believes in God and wishes to be rewarded to comply with God’s order to kill the Americans and plunder their money wherever and whenever they find it. We also call on Muslim ulema, leaders, youths, and soldiers to launch the raid on Satan’s U.S. troops and the devil’s supporters allying with them, and to displace those who are behind them so that they may learn a lesson. . . . The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies – civilians and military – is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it.”

Asked by an interviewer if he is a terrorist, Mr. bin Laden says “Terrorism can be commendable and it can be reprehensible . . . terrorizing oppressors and criminals and thieves and robbers is necessary for the safety of people and for the protection of their property. There is no doubt in this. Every state and every civilization and culture has to resort to terrorism under certain circumstances for the purpose of abolishing tyranny and corruption.” The terrorism his group practices “is of the commendable kind for it is directed at the tyrants and the aggressors and the enemies of Allah . . . terrorizing those and punishing them are necessary measures.”

Hatred of the United States is rooted in oil

Although the pieces of the puzzle haven’t all been put together yet, the early signs are that those responsible for the attacks in the U.S. are associated with militant Islamic leader Osama bin Laden. And what could possibly have sparked those horrific attacks? As with so many other aspects of U.S. foreign policy, much of the hatred that emanates from militant Islamic terrorist groups such as Mr. bin Laden’s can be traced back to a single thing: Oil – and more specifically, the U.S. government’s desire to maintain control over the vast quantities that exist in the Middle East.

Mr. bin Laden, a Saudi-born businessman who left the construction business to become a financier of international Islamic terrorism, is only the latest in a series of Middle Eastern figures who have become public enemy number one as a result of U.S. oil policy. Until Mr. bin Laden came along, for example, the most hated man in the Middle East was Saddam Hussein, the leader of Iraq – who some military intelligence observers feel may be involved in assisting Mr. bin Laden with the war of terrorism against the U.S. Many political analysts believe that the war against Iraq was fought largely to ensure that the oil would continue to flow from Saudi Arabia.

During the Gulf War, the U.S. stationed troops in Saudi Arabia at the request of the Saudi royal family – a move that Mr. bin Laden and other Islamic groups have said was an affront to Muslims, and one which many security experts warned against at the time, arguing that it would increase tension in the Middle East. “A lot of people advised [President George W.]Bush’s father not to put U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia – to put them ‘over the horizon’ rather than in the heartland of Islam,” said U.S. policy expert John Sigler, a professor of political science at Carleton University.

While the State Department argued that the troops should be located in some other area, Prof. Sigler said, the Pentagon decided that they needed to be on the ground in Saudi Arabia for reasons of “military efficiency.” Even after the Iraqi threat had eased, U.S. soldiers remained in what Mr. bin Laden’s group refers to as “the land of the two holy places” (Mecca and Medina). American officials said the troops needed to remain because they would protect the Saudi Arabian government of King Fahd from Iraqi attack – but Prof. Sigler said this was largely a fiction, presumably designed to justify keeping troops to protect Saudi oilfields.

Not only does the presence of non-Muslim soldiers inflame the religious passions of fundamentalist Islamic groups such as Mr. bin Laden’s, but their existence is also a regular reminder that the U.S. is primarily interested in the Middle East because of its oil supplies. Much of Mr. bin Laden’s anti-U.S. rhetoric – expressed in several rare interviews with Western reporters over the past few years – concerns the alleged “rape” and “plundering” of the Middle East by the United States, aimed at controlling the area’s oil for the benefit of the U.S. and other Western nations.

This idea is intricately intertwined with America’s policy on Israel. Some Muslim groups believe that the U.S. is in league with Israel to take control of the Middle East – driven, they argue, by Israel’s desire to crush all Islamic nations, combined with the American desire to control the source of the vast majority of the world’s oil. Within Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, many critics of the monarchy see the U.S. as supporting a “puppet” government for its own purposes, in the same way it did in Iran.

The problem for the U.S. is that anything it does to try and influence the flow or supply of oil involves a large part of the Middle East, and impacts on nations that have an abiding hatred for the U.S. – including Iraq, Iran and Libya. And despite sources of oil such as Alberta’s tar sands, some forecasters expect the U.S. and the rest of the Western world are going to need even more supply from the Middle East in the future: A study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the world will become increasingly dependent on the Middle East over the next 20 years.

The study said that oil-rich Persian Gulf nations will have to expand their oil production by almost 80 per cent over the next 20 years in order to keep up with demand, particularly demand from China and India. The potential for terrorism, supply interruptions and outright war will remain high, the study says – adding that getting more oil from Iraq will be “crucial” to meeting the world’s demands, since Iraq contains 11 per cent of the world’s oil reserves, second only to Saudi Arabia’s 25 per cent.

As long as the U.S. continues its growing demand for oil, in other words, it will be forced to deal with the troubled politics of the Middle East in one way or another, whether it wants to or not.

How can you fight an enemy you can’t see?

(Note: This was originally published on the Globe and Mail website)

In the wake of one of the most horrific terrorist attacks on the United States in recent memory – perhaps even in history – one of the obvious questions is: Who is responsible? And what kind of action will the U.S. government take, or should it take, if and when it finds out? President George W. Bush has made it clear what he wants to do: He said in a statement that he intends to “hunt down and punish those responsible for these cowardly acts.” But how will the United States go about doing that? That is even harder to answer.

International security expert Ian Lesser of Washington-based RAND Corp. said the attack has all the earmarks of what is often called the “new” terrorism – including “the high lethality, the symbolism of the targets, the suicide of the attackers involved” and the fact that “no group has taken credit or claimed responsibility.” The problem with such attacks, Mr. Lesser said, is that it is often difficult to figure out how to retaliate, or even who exactly the government should be retaliating against.

In the past, Mr. Lesser said, terrorism was primarily conducted by organized groups such as the Red Brigade or the Irish Republican Army, whose primary aim was “the liberation of Group X or the freedom or interests of a particular country or group.” They tended to take credit “because they wanted to call attention to their cause,” said Mr. Lesser, “but modern groups have systemic, often religious agendas, and as far as they’re concerned the act itself is enough – and they may see themselves as answerable only to God,” which helps explain why they often involve suicides.

Security experts say the first target of suspicion in such a well-organized attack against the United States is Osama bin Laden, a Saudi exile and prominent supporter of Islamic terrorism who has been implicated in dozens of attacks on U.S. institutions – including a previous attack on the World Trade Center in 1993. Living in Afghanistan, where he has been protected by the fundamentalist Taliban government, Mr. bin Laden reportedly warned several weeks ago that he was preparing some kind of major strike.

John Sigler, an adjunct professor of political science at Carleton University and a specialist in American foreign policy and Middle Eastern affairs, said a warning has been circulating in intelligence circles that Mr. bin Laden was planning an attack – but the assumption was the attack would likely take place in the Middle East, not inside the United States itself. “They’ve been warning for 30 days about a suspected Osama bin Laden attack in the Middle East, and U.S. forces have been on high alert… but nobody had envisaged this kind of multiple hijacking attack” on U.S. targets.

Prof. Sigler said that the attack on the twin towers of the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon was “extremely sophisticated” and that within the international terrorism community “most of us can’t put the finger on anyone but Osama bin Laden.” There were early reports that an Arab group, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, had claimed responsibility, but Prof. Sigler said such an idea was “laughable.” Osama bin Laden’s group is one of the only groups that could put together such a well co-ordinated plan to attack several targets at once, Prof. Sigler said.

Several observers have pointed out that in the wake of the attack on the Federal building in Oklahoma, many terrorism experts also pointed the finger at Osama bin Laden, but bomber Timothy McVeigh turned out to be a decorated U.S. Special Forces veteran associated with the anti-government U.S. “militia” movement. Prof. Sigler said militia groups might have the ability to mount such an attack “because many of them have a Special Forces and intelligence background,” but he still thought it was more likely to be Osama bin Laden. “I can see militia attacking the Pentagon and the State Department, but the World Trade Center isn’t a government centre.”

And why does Osama bin Laden hate the United States with such intensity? Prof. Sigler said the Islamic fundamentalist “doesn’t hate America at all – he hates a specific American policy, which is the presence of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia.” Troops have been stationed on bases in Saudi Arabia since the 1991 Persian Gulf war, Prof. Sigler said, despite repeated warnings from security experts that this policy would create even more tension with fundamentalist groups. “A lot of people advised [President]Bush’s father not to put troops in Saudi Arabia,” Prof. Sigler said, because groups such as Mr. bin Laden’s oppose having non-Muslim troops guarding Islamic holy sites.

When it comes to retaliation, the RAND Corp.’s Mr. Lesser said, the problem for the U.S. government is that the new terrorism involves such a diverse network of groups and often even individuals, as opposed to the kind of state-sponsored terrorism that the United States has been used to in the past. One of the problems with rushing to pin the blame on Osama bin Laden, he said, is defining “who is part of bin Laden’s group? Is it the people standing with him in the cave in Afghanistan? The group of people running things in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere? People who share his aims? Or people who took him as inspiration?” It makes retaliation “a very complicated equation,” Mr. Lesser said.

Mr. Bush and some of his advisers, such as Vice-President and notorious hawk Dick Cheney, may see the appalling attacks on the United States as a declaration of war – but with whom? And how do you fight an enemy you can’t put your hands on? That is the dilemma that confronts the U.S. now.

RIM is a pony that needs to find another trick

At first glance, everything looked peachy keen in Research In Motion’s quarterly results, released late on Thursday. The handheld device maker came in right on estimates with a 5-cent-per-share profit and revenue more than doubled over the same quarter last year. What could possibly be wrong with that?

Well, for starters, the profit wasn’t really a profit on the BlackBerry pagers that everyone is so in love with — and there are some other warning signals lurking around the edges of RIM’s results. It’s possible that investors don’t care whether RIM made any money selling its two-way pagers and a hybrid pager and Palm-style handheld in one.

Those who pushed the company’s stock price up by more than 7 per cent after the results came out didn’t seem to mind that the firm actually rang up an operating loss of more than $3-million and only made it into the black with the help of more than $9-million worth of gains on RIM’s investments.

Investors’ complacency aside, however, it’s important to note that RIM’s core business is still a money-loser — in fact, operating losses were up more than 40 per cent. Although the company’s revenue rose, expenses also increased at a pretty rapid clip: While sales were substantially higher than the same quarter last year, the company’s cost of sales more than tripled, with research and development expenses tripling and marketing and administration expenses doubling.

Gross profit margins fell to 38 per cent from 44 per cent and the company shipped about 25 per cent fewer units than it did in the previous quarter.

There are larger issues for RIM, however. For example, now that everyone is familiar with its “killer app” — always-on e-mail service — because of the publicity about all the high-tech CEOs who use a BlackBerry, what does RIM do for an encore? And how does it do so without eating into the business model that has convinced investors to pay almost 100 times forecasted earnings for the stock?

Those kinds of multiples are as rare as hen’s teeth nowadays, and it’s not clear what RIM has that justifies such a premium. Palm used to command that kind of multiple, too, back in the old days, but the handheld device maker is only valued at 1.5 times revenues now (it has no earnings), while RIM is still trading at more than eight times its revenue.

And in a jab at the Canadian company’s perceived dominance of the wireless e-mail-access game, a Palm executive said this week that Palm’s wireless Palm VII — which can access the Internet using a number of different networks — has more users than RIM does.

Users agree that RIM is far more elegant and efficient an e-mail solution, but for how much longer?

Wireless access is the Holy Grail for handhelds, and both Palm and the various PDAs that use Microsoft’s Pocket PC software (such as Compaq’s iPaq) are rolling out wireless e-mail and Internet access plug-ins or software that will make them far more competitive with RIM.

Rogers AT&T Wireless and Microcell’s Fido are both introducing next-generation GPRS (global packet radio system) high-speed digital networks, which will allow handhelds or telephones to access e-mail and the Internet at faster speeds.

RIM is working on a GPRS model, too, but it will be entering a fairly crowded field.

RIM executives have said they are working with Compaq and others to develop BlackBerry-style “solutions” that could be used to provide the same kind of always-on e-mail for the iPaq or other Pocket PC handhelds, and RIM also has a prototype of a BlackBerry-type unit that runs on Java software — the idea being that it could partner with some of the cellphone handset makers on a combined BlackBerry phone running Java.

The problem with these options, however, is that making a two-way pager that plugs into an iPaq or helping to make a BlackBerry Java phone would eat away at what RIM is: a proprietary handheld device maker with a unique e-mail solution.

In a nutshell, the problem is this: When always-on e-mail was unique to RIM, it stood out as a result — but when other players with more to offer and deeper pockets also have that capability, what will RIM have left that makes it worth the kind of premium it’s getting now?