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I know a technology event has really hit the mainstream when my brother-in-law asks me about it. “What’s this about some Chinese AI thing called DeepSeek?” he asked me recently with a quizzical look. I don’t think the AI technology aspect of DeepSeek was what sparked this question, since he doesn’t know anything (or care) about the details of AI. I think what probably triggered his interest was the same thing that triggered the interest of lots of non-tech types: the fact that news about DeepSeek’s AI advancements caused US stock markets to suddenly go into free fall. Nvidia — the chip-maker that is one of the most valuable stocks in the world — lost as much market value in a single day (~$600 billion) as the gross domestic product of a medium-sized country.

Was this justified? Not really. Suffice it to say that most traders and brokerage firms don’t exactly have a nuanced understanding of AI. Also, at its peak Nvidia was trading for about 50 times its projected earnings (it has been as high as 77 times recently), and about 30 times its projected revenue. Those are eye-popping numbers — by comparison, Apple trades for about 35 times its projected earnings and 10 times future revenue — and any time a stock is selling for that kind of valuation, even the slightest bump in the road will cause a massive selloff. Traders who invest in these kinds of stocks are a little like people who have drunk 45 cups of coffee — they are extremely nervous, and the finger that is perpetually hovering over the “sell” button is on a hair trigger.

I should point out up front that I’m not here to give you the technical nitty-gritty behind DeepSeek’s announcement, for two reasons: #1) I don’t really understand it on the kind of granular level that would make my comments worthwhile for those who do understand it, and #2) There are lots of other places you can find this sort of thing, including a great overview by Ben Thompson in his newsletter Stratechery. But for those of you who aren’t already experts in this area, the 10,000-foot view is that DeepSeek — a Chinese company run by Liang Wenfeng, who started an AI-powered hedge fund and then branched out into AI as a side hustle — built an engine that is competitive with or possibly better than leading LLMs like Claude and GPT-4, but at a fraction of the cost.

Note: This is a version of my Torment Nexus newsletter, which I send out via Ghost, the open-source publishing platform. You can see other issues and sign up here. 

Continue reading “DeepSeek’s real magic doesn’t have anything to do with AI”

From NPR: “It was Christmas Day, 1944, when people heard the news: Glenn Miller, one of music’s biggest stars, had vanished. He had boarded a military plane from Britain, bound for Paris, where he was scheduled to perform for American troops during World War II. But neither crew nor passengers made it across the English Channel. There is no wreckage of Glenn Miller’s plane, and no definitive answers. He disappeared without a trace. Miller wasn’t even supposed to be on board the small prop plane, but, anxious to get going after multiple weather delays, he’d hitched a ride without authorization. It took days for anyone to realize he’d gone missing. The rest of his band eventually arrived in France. And on Christmas Day, as news of Miller’s disappearance hit the papers, they played their show — without the man who had brought them together in the first place.”

Sir Isaac Newton listed all of his sins in 1662 and there are some pretty big ones

From Open Culture: “In 1936, a document of Newton’s dating from around 1662 was sold at a Sotheby’s auction and eventually wound up at the Fitzwilliam Museum in Cambridge, England. Newton rattles off a laundry list of sins he committed during his relatively short life – he was around 20 when he wrote this, still a student at Cambridge. Some of the sins are rather opaque. For example, it’s unclear “Making a feather while on Thy day” means exactly (which is followed by “and denying I made it”). But others like “Peevishness with my mother” are immediately relatable, as is “Punching my sister” or “Having uncleane thoughts words and actions and dreamese.” And then there are some darker ones, like “Wishing death and hoping it to some,” and “Threatning my father and mother Smith to burne them and the house over them.”

Note: This is a version of my When The Going Gets Weird newsletter, which I send out via Ghost, the open-source publishing platform. You can see other issues and sign up here.

Continue reading “Glenn Miller’s disappearance is still unsolved 80 years later”