President Donald Trump vs. the media is going to be an epic battle

It’s bad enough that media companies of all kinds are struggling with declining revenue, fragmented audiences and the increasing power of intermediaries like Facebook. Now add to that a president who has shown himself to be actively hostile towards the press and the First Amendment.

What does that future look like? It looks like a pitched battle between a man who made his own media rules and rode them to victory, and a traditional press that has lost much of its power.

Many media outlets are still licking their wounds over their failure to predict that Trump might win, a victory that came despite a wave of fact-checking and reporting on his numerous falsehoods and ethical failures. The only exception to this is cable television, which made so much money from covering him that introspection over the outcome is unlikely.

But even cable giants have to contend with a media landscape that has fractured and heaved to the point where alternative media players and social media arguably played a far larger role in the election than any mainstream media source, including television.

Note: This was originally published at Fortune, where I was a senior writer from 2015 to 2017

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Here’s why Facebook is partly to blame for the rise of Donald Trump

The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States has triggered a frenzy of blame and finger-pointing unlike anything we’ve seen in decades. Racists are to blame! Democrats who didn’t vote are to blame! It’s the media’s fault! No, it’s Obama’s fault!

There’s another name that some critics would like to add to that list — and possibly even put at the top of the list — and that is Facebook [fortune-stock symbol-“FB”].

Why Facebook? After all, didn’t millions of people vote for Donald Trump of their own free will? Surely no one is suggesting that Facebook somehow rigged its news feed to convince people to vote for Trump? No, no one is suggesting that. But there are other ways to influence an election.

In particular, there are those who argue that Facebook fueled Trump’s rise by circulating a host of fake news stories about political topics, and ese stories helped tip the scale in his favor.

Note: This was originally published at Fortune, where I was a senior writer from 2015 to 2017

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Here’s why the media failed to predict a Donald Trump victory

If you are looking for a word to describe the feeling in the nation’s newsrooms after a Donald Trump win, “shell-shocked” would probably be a good one. How is this possible, when every poll and prediction site said that Hillary Clinton would win? How could everyone have gotten it so wrong?

The inescapable fact is that most of the mainstream media got it wrong because they simply couldn’t believe that Americans would elect someone like Donald Trump. Denial can be a powerful drug.

In part, that’s because much of the East Coast-based media establishment is arguably out of touch with the largely rural population that voted for Trump, the disenfranchised voters who looked past his cheesy exterior and his penchant for half-truths and heard a message of hope, however twisted.

Note: This was originally published at Fortune, where I was a senior writer from 2015 to 2017

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Seeing different viewpoints on social media can actually change minds

If you spend enough time on social networks like Facebook and Twitter, it’s easy to convince yourself that both are just giant echo chambers, where users with specific political views talk to each other, and different viewpoints are ignored. But new research shows that’s not always the case.

According to a recent study by the Pew Research Center, a non-partisan think tank located in Washington, D.C., being exposed to differing views through social media can actually cause people to rethink how they view a political issue. Not always, but sometimes.

The Pew study found that 20% of those surveyed said that they had modified their stance on a social or political issue because of something they saw on social media, and 17% said that viewpoints they encountered through social media had changed their views about a specific candidate.

Democrats were a little more likely than Republicans to say they had modified their views as a result of something they saw on social media, the study said.

Note: This was originally published at Fortune, where I was a senior writer from 2015 to 2017

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How Donald Trump took advantage of a broken media landscape

As the U.S. election approaches, after one of the most divisive campaigns in recent memory, everyone has their own version of who is to blame for Donald Trump. Some blame the party itself, some the economy — but many seem to blame the media for helping promote him, or at least not doing enough to stop him.

Is that really fair? Yes and no. There’s no question that certain media outlets, especially cable news networks, played a key role in helping the former reality-TV star reach a broader audience. But the truth is much more complicated than just “CNN and Fox News created Donald Trump.”

Whether because he cleverly managed to spot the weaknesses in the current media environment, or simply stumbled onto a plan that wound up working, Trump and his campaign succeeded in doing what amounts to an end-run around the traditional media.

In the past, media outlets like the New York Times or CNN were in an a position of power relative to political candidates, especially those like Trump — someone without any kind of traditional political track record or campaign support. If they didn’t cover you, you effectively didn’t exist.

Note: This was originally published at Fortune, where I was a senior writer from 2015 to 2017

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Gawker Media agrees to settle Hulk Hogan case for $31 million

If you are playing poker, you’d better hope your opponent isn’t being bankrolled by a billionaire with a long memory and almost infinite patience. That’s at least one potential lesson to be learned from Gawker Media’s long-running legal battle against former wrestler Hulk Hogan.

Gawker founder Nick Denton said Wednesday that the bankrupt company has agreed to settle the case. Court documents show that Gawker will pay Hogan a total of $31 million.

That’s still a fairly huge sum, but it’s significantly less than the $140-million judgement that Hogan and his backer — Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel — won in a Florida jury trial.

Gawker is also paying two other individuals who sued the company a total of $1.2 million. Shiva Ayyadurai sued Gawker for questioning his claim that he invented email, and Ashley Terrill sued because of a Gawker story about the dating app Tinder.

Note: This was originally published at Fortune, where I was a senior writer from 2015 to 2017

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The New York Times scrambles to avoid the print advertising cliff

The fact that print-based advertising revenue is declining is no surprise to anyone following the media industry. But what is hitting publishers like the New York Times particularly hard is that this drop isn’t at a steady pace—instead, it’s actually been picking up speed.

In the first quarter, for example, the newspaper’s revenue from print advertising fell 9%. In the second quarter, it dropped 14%. And in the latest quarter, it fell almost 19%.

On the plus side, the Times‘ digital-advertising revenue climbed 21% in the latest quarter. But despite that growth, it still remains a much smaller number: The Times made $44 million on various forms of digital advertising, including native or sponsored content, but almost twice that much from print advertising.

The company said that growth in digital came from its in-house native advertising business, and also from video (among other things, the paper is being paid an estimated $3 million by Facebook to produce regular video clips for the social network’s Facebook Live feature).

Note: This was originally published at Fortune, where I was a senior writer from 2015 to 2017

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There’s a simple reason for all those Taboola and Outbrain links

They’re almost a web fixture: Those spammy-looking links at the end of news articles, with photos of former TV stars and headlines like “What she looks like now will amaze you!”

But despite the fact that many readers—and news companies, for that matter—hate them, they’re probably not going away anytime soon.

Depending on the size of the outlet and the amount of traffic they can generate, a contract with Outbrain or Taboola—the two largest providers of such links—can mean millions of dollars in guaranteed annual income. And if your print advertising is declining 30% in a single quarter, that sounds great.

To take one prominent example, Time Inc. (which owns Fortune magazine), signed a deal with Outbrain in 2014 that was worth an estimated $100-million to the magazine publisher over three years.

Note: This was originally published at Fortune, where I was a senior writer from 2015 to 2017

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